The pressure of RMB appreciation increases

The pressure of RMB appreciation increases
In a situation that the exchange rate of U.S. dollar glides continuously, the appreciation of RMB of the market is expected to intensify to some extent. State Administration of Foreign Exchange Control the intersection of item of the capital and the intersection of management department and chief smooth small stream Liu say frankly on Wednesday, RMB store and appreciate the pressure at present, China is still the capital net inflow country; So, this is a good opportunity that China further advances the account liberalization of the capital. But he emphasizes at the same time, unless can guarantee to set up overall control and early warning system of risk, otherwise China can't totally unlock the capital to control. Staff reporter Luo entangles musical sound
Liu GuangXi attends in London " The global capital summit of Boao Forum for Asia " When international monetary system of showing if you can't want, reform,based on a kind of currency with sovereign right only lasting ones unable. Chinese authorities are encouraging the overseas direct investment, RMB will be admitted as the global currency gradually. He claims continuously, RMB will be more and more general in the whole world and is admitted, will be used for trade and captical transaction more, this can't be reversed. But Liu GuangXi admits, the pressure still exists and appreciates in RMB at present, China is still the capital net inflow country.
Appreciating will become the main trend slowly
As to this, it is expressed that chief of the People's University of China finance and security institute Wu Xiao asks, under the exchange rate system at present, it is a trend that RMB will appreciate slowly. "Any monetary internationalization, are all a appreciation course, it can not be the debased course, there is no people to want to devalue, can not internationalize. " As to the future the international monetary system is changed, Wu Xiao asks believing, the position of U.S. dollar will not waver in the following ten years, remain the most important currency in the world. U.S. dollar and RMB will coexist each other in the future, will develop together, will safeguard the stability of the global monetary system together.
In fact, the appreciation based on RMB is expected to intensify, the market begins too to hope that will have more hot money that will pour into China's arbitrage. It is also pointed out that friend of Deputy Director of Guangdong Province Chinese Academy of Social Sciences industry institute for economic research Li shines, recently when the local and overseas long-term market one -year U.S. dollar cashes RMB and offers and presents price differential of about a thousand, have already found the hot money at that time flowed and began to become very active. However, because the educational circles are difficult to confirm or not to future RMB appreciation, so judge it is still early for the hot money to flow into rapidly at present. But he reaffirms, RMB appreciation is undoubtedly the important factor that the hot money of a influence flows.
The foreign trade export is pessimistic
The room Deputy Director Zhang Ming of the international finance judges by the policy generation the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the hot money will continue flowing into China in the second half year. First of all, the tail market of the stock market remains as before in the prominent upward space. On one hand, domestic flowability still abundant, avoid line of credit to might be tightened up the second half year to the limit, but the fundamental key of the loose monetary policy will not change generally, there is transferring the space to other use of a large number of note financing inside the commercial bank.
On the other hand, factors such as the wealth effect of the assets with upward price,etc. can pull and consume and make the investment, this means taking and tightening up the way to supply to control prices. Secondly, American Federal Reserve Committee will not increase the interest in the second half of this year, Sino-America profit will not be further narrowed. In addition, the outside pressure of RMB appreciation will initiate and appreciate expectancy again, this will attract more hot money to flow into arbitrage.
China Industrial Bank chief economist's stupid political commissar believes too, if RMB will appreciate continuously, the hot money may really stage a comeback. However, he estimates the hot money will not flow into China continuously before next first quarter, even the hot money is come to attack, chasing the favourable fund may not only settle on the Chinese market, because the question controlled on the basis of capital circulation, the hot money can well invest in the Hong Kong market, in addition, both American and European market all invest in chances at present. And take a broad view of the present situation, because the foreign trade export of China is still pessimistic, the basic side does not support RMB to appreciate continuously.
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